[PREVIEW] NATO Ankara Summit on 7-8 July: Ukraine, Iran wars and allied fractures in focus

OVERVIEW

• Ukraine, defence spending, industrial mobilisation, the Iran war and the future of the US security guarantee all in focus.
• The summit follows the 2025 Hague commitment (NATO summit held on 24–25 June 2025) for allies to invest 5% of GDP annually in defence and defence-related spending by 2035.
• The Defence Industry Forum on 7 July will focus on turning higher spending into production, procurement and industrial capacity, according to the NATO release.
• NATO leaders are also expected to reaffirm their “ironclad” commitment to Article 5, while pledging around EUR 70bln in military support for Ukraine in 2026 and at least equivalent support in 2027.

US PRESIDENT TRUMP'S SCHEDULE

Tuesday 7th

• Meets Turkish President Erdogan at 13:15BST/08:15EDT

Wednesday 8th

• Meets NATO Secretary General Rutte at 08:30BST/03:30EDT.
• Meets Ukrainian President Zelensky at 12:30BST/07:30EDT.
• Meets Syrian President al-Sharaa at 13:30BST/08:30EDT.
• Trump to give a press conference at 14:15BST/09:15EDT.

UKRAINE

• The backdrop has sharpened after Russia launched a major overnight missile and drone attack on Ukraine on 6 July, firing 68 missiles and 351 drones, with Kyiv reporting casualties and renewed damage ahead of Ukrainian President Zelensky’s arrival in Ankara.
• Ukrainian officials are expected to use the Ankara meetings to press allies for faster replenishment, more interceptors and firmer multi-year support.
• The draft summit language is expected to identify Russia as a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security, while the Ukraine package is designed to show that NATO support is moving from "ad hoc pledges" toward a more structured, multi-year funding road.

DEFENCE SPENDING

• US President Trump is expected to press allies to accelerate delivery of the 5% GDP defence investment target agreed at The Hague, arguing that Europe has relied too heavily on US military power.
• The US has already announced a 5,000-troop drawdown from Germany, while European allies remain concerned that Washington could further reduce its footprint if it judges allied spending not be sufficient.

IRAN WAR

• The Iran war is likely to be a non-Ukraine issue that garners the most attention.
• Trump has criticised NATO allies for not backing US operations more directly, while several European powers remain wary of being drawn into offensive action against Iran.
• Reports suggest the expected compromise is a declaration that Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon and must respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, without obliging European allies to join direct US combat operations.
• Draft texts confirm that leaders will use careful, compromised language to prevent an open fracture within the alliance.

WHAT TO WATCH

1. The final NATO communiqué, particularly any language on Ukraine, Iran, defence spending and alliance unity.
2. New military support for Ukraine, especially announcements on Patriot missiles, air defence systems and ammunition.
3. The EUR 70bln Ukraine package, including funding commitments, procurement contracts and delivery timelines.
4. Trump's remarks on Article 5, US troop deployments in Europe, defence spending and Iran.
5. Announcements from the NATO Defence Industry Forum, particularly on ammunition, missiles, air defence, drones and defence production contracts.