[PREVIEW] Swedish General Election on 13th September 2026

• Swedish general election takes place on Sunday, 13th September; polls suggest it will be a tight race between the two main coalitions.
• The latest Novus poll indicates that the opposition coalition (Red-Green) has 50.7% support, more than the incumbent coalition (Tido parties), which has 48.1%.
• The SEK is unlikely to be materially moved by the election result.

TLDR:

• The current parliament consists of a three-party coalition of the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals, with legislation ultimately passed with the support of the Sweden Democrats, which sit outside the Cabinet. The main opposition Red-Green coalition is polling incrementally better than the current government, setting the scene for drawn-out coalition talks. Ultimately, the short-term impact on the SEK is likely to be limited. Should a left-leaning coalition form a government, the bias for the SEK is likely to be bearish, given the implications for growth. Polling stations are open between 08:00-20:00 local time (07:00-19:00 BST), with preliminary numbers due around an hour later. Thereafter, early counts are completed on the 14th of September.

REACTION:

• The SEK is unlikely to be materially affected by the election, given that its price action is generally driven by global sentiment and monetary policy. However, it will not be immune to fiscal and political uncertainty, particularly the implications for growth if a left-leaning coalition forms a majority. Moreover, fiscal spending has been more generous this year heading into the election, perhaps artificially boosting GDP metrics. Therefore, SEB expects a slight negative bias for the SEK over the long term.

ELECTION PROCESS:

• Held once every four years, with all 349 seats in Parliament (Riksdag) contested. As such, 175 seats constitute a parliamentary majority, but are not required to form a majority government. At the same time, voters will cast ballots for the Regional Councils (regioner) and local municipal assemblies (kommunfullmaktige).
• Sweden uses a proportional representation system, meaning a party will roughly secure the same percentage of seats as its share of the vote. However, a party must secure a minimum of 4% of the national vote to win any seats in Parliament.
• Polling stations are open between 08:00-20:00 local time (07:00-19:00 BST), with preliminary numbers due around an hour later. Thereafter, early counts are completed in the early hours of 14th September.

CURRENT PARLIAMENT:

• The current parliament comprises of three parties from the right-wing bloc: the Moderates (66 seats), Christian Democrats (19 seats) and Liberals (16 seats). The three-party coalition formed a minority government and subsequently signed the Tido Agreement. Under this, the minority government reached a deal with the Sweden Democrats (70 seats), which remained outside the Cabinet while using its seats to support legislation in-line with its ideology. The deal then led to the election of Ulf Kristersson as Prime Minister.
• The opposition coalition comprises four centre-left parties: the Social Democrats (106 seats), Centre Party (24 seats), Left Party (21 seats) and Green Party (18 seats). The difference between the ruling government and the opposition is minimal, with the 2026 election also likely to be very close.

Note: Nine members from various parties resigned or were expelled, becoming independents.

KEY PARTIES:

• Sweden Democrats: A right-wing populist party focused on reducing immigration and violent crime.
• Moderates: Current PM Ulf Kristersson leads the party. A centre-right, pro-business party that aims to cut taxes and support nuclear energy.
• Christian Democrats: Focuses on conservative values, advocating improved healthcare and elderly care, as well as stronger family dynamics.
• Liberal Party: A centre-right party aiming to improve the school system.

The above form the current government, with the Sweden Democrats acting as the final anchor to pass legislation; Tido Parties / the blue-yellow alliance.

• Social Democrats: A social democratic party focused on healthcare and funding public schools.
• Centre Party: A centrist party advocating lower taxes and support for smaller businesses.
• Left Party: A socialist party aiming to ban profits in healthcare while advocating a wealth tax.
• Green Party: Focuses on tackling climate change.

The above four parties form the opposition; the red-green alliance.

SCENARIOS:

(A) ** Tido parties maintain majority:**

• The current government (blue-yellow alliance) has announced that it intends to continue its coalition beyond 2026. Should it maintain its current majority, Ulf Kristersson would likely remain Prime Minister. However, the Sweden Democrats, which currently sit outside the government, would likely formally join the government, rather than providing external support as is currently the case. The Liberals may fall short of the 4% threshold needed to enter Parliament, which could complicate coalition talks.

(B) Opposition parties achieve a majority:

• If the opposition parties (red-green) achieve a majority, Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson would become Prime Minister. Coalition talks may be complicated by the Left Party, which is demanding Cabinet positions. Therefore, alternatives and/or greater reliance on other parties could be needed to form a government.

(C) A “grand coalition” could be formed if the Centre Party performs well:

• If the Centre Party performs in line with current polling, it will hold some negotiating power heading into coalition talks. There may be some chance that the Centre Party will push for a "grand coalition", garnering support from the Social Democrats and perhaps other parties from the current government, excluding the Sweden Democrats.

POLLS:

• A recent poll conducted by Novus highlighted that the election race is tight. The Red-Green alliance has 50.7% support, while the blue-yellow alliance has 48.1%. Importantly, the Liberals moved above the 4% threshold for the first time in years, which gives the current government a bit more confidence heading into election day. Historical polls conducted in August and early September also broadly indicated that the Red-Green alliance would secure a majority, albeit only by a narrow margin.

COALITION TALKS:

• Informal talks will get under way soon after election night, while official talks typically start a few days after the final election results are announced. The talks are likely to drag on for some time, given that securing support from other parties will require concessions. Major points of division are likely to include: 1) energy policies, 2) immigration, 3) wealth and business taxes, and various other labour and public-sector policies.
• In the past, coalition talks have taken a fair amount of time. In 2018, the government took 129 days to take office, while the 2022 government took around a month. Therefore, a repeat of lengthy talks would be unlikely to lead to political uncertainty; however, talks lasting until 12th November could result in some short-term volatility. This is because the current government would be named as the caretaker government and would have to form the next Swedish budget. Irrespective of this, bond issuance is likely to rise under any existing or new government - though Swedish debt remains much lower than that of European peers.