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PREVIEW: US Retail Sales (May) due at 13:30BST/08:30EDT

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PREVIEW: US Retail Sales (May) due at 13:30BST/08:30EDT

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  • US retail sales expected to rise 0.5% M/M in May, the same as April's reading, with Y/Y last time out printing 4.9%. Ex autos also expected at 0.5% (prev. 0.7%), with control seen at 0.4% (prev. 0.5%). 
  • The Chicago Fedʼs Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS), which tracks the US Census Bureauʼs Monthly retail trade survey says that retail & food services sales ex-autos are projected to decrease by -0.3% M/M in May (vs +0.7% in April), and on a seasonally adjusted basis, are projected to decrease by -1.3% M/M adjusted for inflation (vs 0.0% in April).
  • Bank of Americaʼs monthly consumer checkpoint data is more optimistic, however. BofAʼs internal card data point to robust consumer momentum in the month, with total card spending up 5.1% Y/Y in May, the strongest in nearly four years. BofA said the strength is not merely a gasoline story, noting that underlying spending held firm across both goods and services. It also said that the gap between income cohorts narrowed materially in both spending and wage growth, though some of this convergence may reflect a FIFA World Cup boost. The bank also says that consumer financial health looks solid, with no clear signs that households are leaning on borrowing to fund spending. Although the savings rate has eased, savings levels remain relatively elevated, and the seasonal lift in deposit balances from tax refunds has been larger this year than in 2025, the report notes.
  • After retail sales, and while the print will have no sway on the decision, traders will await the FOMC confab, updated SEPs and Chair Warsh's first press conference. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold, while money markets currently price in 18bps of hikes priced in by year-end.

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