Preview: US to sell USD 25bln of 30-year bonds at 18:00BST/13:00EDT

Auction History

• Tail: (prev. 0.5bps, six-auction average -0.4bps)
• High Yield: (prev. 4.876%, six-auction average 4.798%)
• B/C: (prev. 2.39x, six-auction average 2.43x)
• Dealer: (prev. 11.6%, six-auction average 10.7%)
• Direct: (prev. 24.2%, six-auction average 22.5%)
• Indirect: (prev. 64.1%, six-auction average 66.8%)

Preview

The 30-year yield currently trades at 5.03%, above both the prior auction’s 4.876% high yield and the 4.798% six-auction average, leaving the bond at the highest outright yield levels since July 2025 and offering attractive valuation for today’s auction.

Meanwhile, the MOVE index — a measure of Treasury market volatility — currently trades around 70 versus roughly 80 at the time of the prior offering, which could also help support participation.

The combination of higher outright yields and lower volatility may help entice both domestic real money accounts and foreign buyers back into the market following softer demand dynamics in April. The prior auction saw direct demand decline while indirect demand also remained below the six-auction average, contributing to a slightly above-average dealer takedown and the first tail in the 30-year auction since November 2025.

However, geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, with markets continuing to monitor whether President Trump resumes military action against Iran. Reports suggest any decision may not come until after his return from China later this week. A prolonged conflict alongside elevated energy prices would likely reinforce persistent inflation concerns, particularly after this week’s CPI and PPI reports showed broader underlying price pressures beyond energy alone, with core and services inflation both accelerating more than expected.