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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Goolsbee

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German government spokesperson says the government will not cap fuel prices at any cost; says the government needs to reassess its reform plans

Brazil's Lula seen with 46% vs Bolsonaro's 45% in a potential Presidential election run-off, according to a Btg/Nexus poll

PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Goolsbee

UKMTO has received a report of an incident involving a vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz, reported at 07:30 UTC; tanker conducting an inbound transit was struck by an unknown projectile

[MARKET ANALYSIS] USTs and Gilts soar as energy prices fall, with strength also facilitated by trade optimism

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  • 11:30BST/06:30EDT: Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, neutral) speaks on the policy outlook. Speaking in mid-August, Goolsbee said inflation remains his main concern, and he wanted to see several more months of cooling before concluding it is returning to the 2% target. He described growth and the labour market as broadly stable, while warning that persistent inflation could require higher rates and that stronger productivity does not necessarily justify easier policy.
  • FOMC Recap - Last week, the FOMC unanimously raised rates by 25bps to 3.75-4.00%. It said the move should help return inflation to target more quickly, while reiterating that inflation remains elevated. Economic activity was described as expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending as resilient and capital investment as robust. Labour-market language was broadly unchanged. The dot plot was hawkish, with the median showing another 25bps hike in 2026. Twelve of 18 participants saw one further hike, four saw two, and two saw none (NOTE: 18 of the 19 participants submitted forecasts; Chair Warsh again did not submit an individual forecast, consistent with his view that publishing projections can unduly constrain the Fed’s future policy decisions). The median rate forecast remained at 4.125% through the end-2027, before easing to 3.875% in 2028, and then to 3.625% in 2029, while its longer-run projection was nudged up to 3.2%. At his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Warsh emphasised price stability while describing the US economy and labour market as strong. As expected, he avoided any forward guidance, saying the Fed is “committed to a discipline, not a decision,” and framed the rate hike as evidence of determination to return inflation to target. Warsh also cited economic strength, capital demand and geopolitics behind higher bond yields. Writing after the announcements, analysts at Goldman Sachs said they now expect another 25bps Fed hike in October, citing a more hawkish-than-expected FOMC outcome; it highlighted the 16-2 projection for another 2026 hike, no dissent on the September move, a higher neutral-rate estimate, and Warsh’s emphasis on removing accommodation. Further hikes beyond October are possible, but are not Goldman’s base case.

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