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[PRIMER] French National Rally (RN) leader Le Pen’s Court of Appeals verdict is due today, Le Pen to announce at 19:00BST who will run in the April 2027 Presidential Election.

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[PRIMER] French National Rally (RN) leader Le Pen’s Court of Appeals verdict is due today, Le Pen to announce at 19:00BST who will run in the April 2027 Presidential Election.

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  • As a reminder, Le Pen was convicted of misappropriating public funds in 2025, which resulted in a four year (suspended) prison sentence and a five year ban from holding public office.
  • Le Pen has appealed the sentence to the Paris Court. The base case is that the court will align with the conviction from 2025, an outcome essentially all commentators and followers, even those in proximity to RN, expect. However, the court could potentially alter her sentence length which, given time served, could open the door to her running.
  • Alternatively, the court could stick to the exact same verdict and punishment. A result that would result in Jordan Bardella running for French President.
  • Finally, the court could acquit Le Pen. However, this is not seen as likely.
  • Irrespective of the outcome, the market reaction is unlikely to be pronounced. As polls clearly point to a RN victory in the 2027 Presidential election, as things stand.

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