[PRIMER] UN General Assembly: Iran and US-China in focus; Trump to speak at 09:55 EDT / 14:55 BST

TRUMP SPEECH

• US President Trump is scheduled to address the General Assembly at 09:55 EDT / 14:55 BST.
• US Ambassador Waltz said Trump will outline the administration's approach to global conflicts and reiterate that Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon.
• Remarks on Iran and the broader Middle East will be pertinent, while comments on Russia-Ukraine and trade will also be watched.

TRUMP BILATERALS ON TUESDAY

• UK PM Burnham (11:45 EDT / 16:45 BST): The first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Burnham since the latter became PM in July. Discussions are expected to cover Ukraine, the Middle East and AI, with Burnham also in New York to announce a new UK-US defence AI partnership. On Ukraine, the UK has been pushing for stronger air defences, while the Middle East discussion comes amid high energy prices.

• Japanese PM Takaichi (12:30 EDT / 17:30 BST): Talks are expected to centre on trade, defence and China, coming two days before Trump hosts Chinese President Xi. Japan will be particularly attentive to any shift in Washington's approach towards Beijing and Taiwan, while US-Japan economic and security ties will also feature. The meeting comes ahead of Trump-Xi talks where Taiwan is expected to be a significant issue, with Xi reportedly set to push Trump to halt US arms sales to Taipei.

• Ukrainian President Zelensky (13:15 EDT / 18:15 BST): Zelensky is expected to push Trump for a reciprocal Russia-Ukraine energy truce amid concerns over attacks on power and heating infrastructure heading into winter. The meeting follows Trump-Macron talks on Monday, where an energy truce and strengthening Ukrainian air defences were discussed. Zelensky has said Ukraine would reciprocate if Russia stops targeting its energy infrastructure, although Moscow has yet to signal willingness thus far.

• Gulf Leaders (14:45 EDT / 19:45 BST): Trump meets leaders from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, with the Iran war, Houthi activity and regional security set to dominate. The meeting comes as Trump weighs his next steps on Iran, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and threats to regional shipping have added to concerns over further escalation alongside supply issues. Washington has recently declined Saudi requests for direct US military involvement against the Houthis.

• Acting Venezuelan President Rodriguez (19:40 EDT Tuesday / 00:40 BST Wednesday): Trump is due for a sideline meeting with interim President Delcy Rodriguez in their first in-person meeting, following the US removal of former President Maduro. Venezuela-US relations and energy are likely areas of interest given Venezuela's status as a major oil producer, although the White House has provided limited detail on the agenda.

• Iraqi PM al-Zaidi (Time TBC): Trump is also scheduled to meet Iraqi PM Ali Faleh al-Zaidi during the UN gathering. Details of the agenda remain limited, although the meeting comes against the backdrop of the US-Iran conflict and heightened regional security risks. Yesterday it was reported that Iraqi government has a plan to disarm armed factions by mid-2027, with the Iraqi PM likely to inform US President Trump of the plan during their meeting in New York, according to Al Jazeera.

IRAN

• Iranian President Pezeshkian addresses the General Assembly on Wednesday (time TBC), with the speech coming amid tentative signs of diplomacy but continued military tensions between Tehran and Washington. Before departing for New York, Pezeshkian said Iran does not want war, but would not yield to pressure, while Trump has said he would be open to meeting the Iranian President; no bilateral has been confirmed.

• The nuclear file will be a key area of attention after the IAEA Board referred Iran's continued safeguards non-compliance to the UN Security Council earlier this month. Tehran has meanwhile warned that continued IAEA pressure could undermine the NPT framework.

• Senior Iranian officials are also scheduled to meet Oman, Qatar and other Gulf leaders on Wednesday, with regional mediation, the Strait of Hormuz and Yemen likely headline topics. Oman has already been facilitating US-Houthi contacts, while separate Iran-Gulf talks over the management of Hormuz were postponed last week amid disagreements between Tehran and Gulf states. As such, attention will centre on prospects for US-Iran talks, the nuclear issue and efforts to de-escalate tensions around Hormuz and Yemen.

US-CHINA

• Trump and Chinese President Xi meet at the White House on Thursday (time TBC), in their second meeting this year, with trade, rare earths, Taiwan, AI and Iran among the main issues. Overall, expectations are tilted towards extending the current economic truce rather than a major trade breakthrough.

• On trade, attention will be on a potential extension of the current tariff truce beyond its November 10th expiry, alongside possible tariff reductions on non-strategic goods. The sides are also discussing reducing China's tariff on US LNG, while Washington is seeking greater Chinese purchases of US agricultural goods and Boeing aircraft. Sources yesterday suggested the US supports extending the trade truce by six months, while China pushed for a longer extension, NYT reported.

• Rare earths remain a key sticking point, with the US pushing for improved Chinese supplies of critical minerals after previous export restrictions. China's rare-earth processing capabilities provide Beijing with leverage in the trade talks.

• On Taiwan, Xi is expected to press Trump to halt US arms sales, while Washington has reiterated its support for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ahead of the summit.

• AI will also feature, after Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He agreed to continue AI safety talks and discussed an incident-notification mechanism, although no broader agreement has yet been finalised. US Treasury Secretary Bessent will present Trump with a proposed US-China AI pact, with the President to decide on the deal this week.