Projectile believed to be a North Korean-fired ballistic missile has already fallen, according to Japan's Coast Guard.

• Projectile seems to have landed outside of Japan's EEZ.

North Korean ballistic launches are a recurring feature of the calendar and the market pattern around them is well established: a brief risk-off flicker in the yen, Korean won and KOSPI futures at the headline, fading within the session when the test lands outside Japan's EEZ and draws no military response, which is the modal outcome. The detail that the projectile has already fallen and landed outside the EEZ places this in the routine-test bucket rather than the escalation bucket, since overflights of Japanese territory or impacts within the EEZ are the cases that have historically prompted emergency UN Security Council sessions, defence ministry condemnations and a more durable bid for havens. Launches of this kind typically cluster around joint US-South Korea military exercises, domestic political events in Pyongyang, or stalled diplomacy, and tend to come in sequences rather than as one-offs. The follow-ons that have mattered in past episodes are the flight profile details from South Korea's Joint Chiefs and Japan's defence ministry (apogee and range indicate whether it is a short-range system or something intercontinental), and whether the US, Japan or South Korea move beyond standard condemnation toward sanctions or shows of force. Absent an EEZ breach or a trajectory over Japan, the established pattern is a contained headline with a short market half-life.