raqi sources report that the headquarters of separatist groups in Qaisanjq, Erbil, was targeted, reports Fars

Attribution via Iranian state-linked reporting tends to signal either an official claim or an authorised message, and prior episodes have followed a consistent sequence: the strike, a formal claim, Iraqi and Kurdish condemnation on sovereignty grounds, and limited material escalation beyond the immediate exchange. The distinction that matters is between a contained cross-border action against a militia target, which has historically faded from the tape within days, and one that draws in Iraqi state actors or coalition forces, which is what has broadened past episodes. For the crude complex the transmission channel is risk premium and any threat to Kurdish export flows rather than immediate supply loss; prior strikes of this kind have produced brief premia that unwound absent infrastructure damage. Worth watching are the formal Iranian claim, the Baghdad and Erbil responses, and any indication of casualties among non-target actors.