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RBA hikes the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.10%, as expected, with the decision made by a majority decision (5-4 vote split)

The RBA's decision to hike the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.10% aligns with expectations, highlighting a significant split among policymakers (5-4 vote).

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RBA hikes the Cash Rate by 25bps to 4.10%, as expected, with the decision made by a majority decision (5-4 vote split)

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Says 

  • Five members voted for a 25bps hike and four voted to leave the Cash Rate unchanged.
  • Material risk inflation will stay above target for longer.
  • Inflation risks have tilted further to the upside.
  • Board will do what’s necessary to deliver price and jobs goals.
  • Short-term inflation expectations have already risen.
  • The conflict in the Middle East poses substantial risks in both directions and has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation.
  • Will be attentive to data, evolving outlook, and risks in decisions.
  • Wide range of data over recent months confirmed inflationary pressures picked up materially in H2 2025.
Context

This reflects growing concerns about persistent inflation risks and indicates a proactive stance from the RBA, which may lead to stronger AUD and affect global risk sentiment as investors assess potential implications for future rate hikes.

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