RBA's Assistant Governor Hunter says Australia household spending is holding up okay, adds inflation in Australia is still above its target, while Australia's business investment is showing signs of strength

Remarks from an assistant governor tend to sit a rung below the governor and deputy in market-moving weight; speeches at this level have historically mattered less for their content than for whether they confirm or deviate from the most recent board communication, which here reads as confirmation.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Dollar is marginally higher but with upside capped ahead of key central bank rate decisions this week

Goldman Sachs forecasts the Fed to hike rates at its meeting this week versus a prior forecast of no change

RBA's Assistant Governor Hunter says Australia household spending is holding up okay, adds inflation in Australia is still above its target, while Australia's business investment is showing signs of strength

[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures are rangebound ahead of major central bank rate decisions and amid upside in oil prices

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices rallied to start the week with Saudi's East-West Pipeline shut following attacks, while Oman postponed a planned Persian Gulf Foreign Ministers meeting where Iran was set to formally unveil a temporary Hormuz agreement

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Context

The combination being described, resilient household spending, firming business investment, and inflation still above target, is the standard formulation used by central banks keeping the option of further tightening, or at least an extended hold, on the table rather than signalling any easing bias. The transmission channel in past episodes of this kind runs through the front end of the Australian curve and the rate-sensitive currency, with the size of the move typically depending on how the remarks sit against the prevailing pricing for the next meeting rather than on the remarks themselves. The distinction worth drawing is between describing the economy as holding up, which is backward looking, and any hint on the policy response, which is what reprices. The follow-ons are whether other RBA speakers echo the same emphasis on above-target inflation and how the remarks frame the next quarterly inflation print, which has tended to be the decisive input for this board.

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