RBA's Hauser says monetary policy is working, but the inflation outlook has deteriorated and appears worse than forecast, slightly exceeding expectations

• Inflation has remained elevated for an extended period, while inflation expectations must remain anchored to the target.
• Companies continue to cite cost pressures as their primary concern.
• There has been some slowing in labour market and housing data.
• RBA is still finalising its forecasts, and it remains uncertain what decision the Board will make.

Commentary of this shape, policy working yet the outlook worse than forecast, is the standard pre-decision positioning from central banks managing sticky services and cost-driven inflation, and it has historically read as hawkish at the margin without committing the board. The operative tension is the one named explicitly: elevated inflation and firm cost pressures against slowing labour and housing data, a combination that in past Australian episodes has kept the RBA in extended hold-with-tightening-bias rather than forcing an immediate move. The anchoring language on expectations is the tell that matters; central banks invoke it when they judge the risk has shifted toward doing too little, and it tends to matter more for the front end and OIS repricing than for the belly of the curve. The distinction to draw is between a signal that the next decision is finely balanced and a signal that forecasts are drifting in one direction; the admission that projections are being finalised and the outcome is uncertain sits in the first camp, which usually leaves pricing sensitive to the next inflation print rather than repriced on the remarks alone. Follow-ons are whether other RBA speakers echo the deterioration framing ahead of the meeting and how the staff forecasts land against market pricing. As single-speaker guidance, directional rather than binding.