[REPOST] PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Waller, Kashkari, Musalem
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[REPOST] PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Waller, Kashkari, Musalem
Houthi leader will speak at 16:00 local time (14:00 BST / 09:00 EDT)
ECB's Lane says that "you should believe Banks when they say inflation will return to target"; shock is medium sized and a measured response is appropriate
On the Newsquawk feed at , 20 minutes before this page.
- 09:30BST/04:30EDT: Fed’s Waller (voter) speaks on the economic outlook. Waller gave remarks last week, but avoided comments on monpol. Speaking in early September before the FOMC meeting, Waller said he was leaning towards keeping rates steady if August inflation data shows continued progress, though he would consider a hike if inflation comes in hot; ultimately, he sided with the consensus in endorsing a hike to 3.75-4.00%. He described the previous FFR target of 3.50-3.75% as only slightly restricting demand, adding it may not take much inflation acceleration to prompt him toward tighter policy. Waller said elevated energy prices and tariffs are no longer a significant source of ongoing inflation pressure, though he sees some upside risks from AI-related technology costs.
- 15:40BST/10:40EDT: Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) moderates a panel at a Minneapolis Fed event. Speaking last week, Kashkari said he has no strong view on an October hike, has pencilled in one more rate rise this year and another in 2027, adding that the Fed may have to hike more than expected depending on the economy. He said the economy remains surprisingly resilient, with strong consumer spending and a broadly healthy labour market, though housing is weak.
- 18:40BST/13:40EDT: Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) speaks on the economic outlook. Speaking in late September, Musalem described the economy as very strong, with the AI capex boom fuelling demand pressure, which is driving about half of current inflation, adding that policy remains somewhat accommodative after the last hike and long-run inflation expectations are consistent with 2%. He also said that central bankers need not make promises but should explain how and why policy decisions are made.
Context
A three-speaker day with only one sitting voter is the familiar pattern where the headline risk concentrates on Waller, since current voters carry the proximate policy signal while non-voters frame the outer-year path and rarely move the front end unless they break sharply from consensus. Waller's prior form is the tell: he has conditioned his stance explicitly on incoming inflation prints, so remarks on the economic outlook will be read less for a directional call than for where he places the bar between steady and tighter, and in past cycles speakers who tie themselves to the data tend to amplify the reaction to the next releases rather than reprice on the day. The spread of views across the three is worth mapping rather than averaging: Kashkari sketching one more rise this year and another beyond, Musalem framing policy as still somewhat accommodative, Waller flagging a low threshold for tightening. The case distinction that matters is between speakers who see the current stance as restrictive enough and those who see residual accommodation, since it is that fault line, not the timing of any single hike, that drives the level versus timing split on the curve. Titles matter here too: the two economic-outlook speeches carry the policy content, while the panel moderation format historically produces fewer quotable lines. The follow-ons are whether the three cohere on the reaction function and how the remarks sit against the prevailing inflation trend.
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