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Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson says Sweden’s inflation outlook has become more uncertain after unexpectedly high inflation readings this summer; Sweden’s economic recovery could prove more persistent than expected.

  • Does not currently see signs that Sweden’s economy is at risk of overheating soon.
  • Still sees an increased risk of modest demand-driven inflation.
  • Have scope to wait before adjusting monetary policy, even if there are some risks of elevated inflation going forward.

Subscribers had this at 08:37. Published here 08:57.

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Context

Remarks from a deputy governor at a smaller G10 central bank sit one step removed from the rate-setting core, and the krona and Swedish rates have historically repriced only where such comments signal the committee's centre of gravity rather than an individual's tail position. The framing here is two-sided: upside inflation surprises acknowledged alongside scope to wait, which is the classic holding pattern language that has preceded extended pauses at the Riksbank in past episodes. The operative distinction is between demand-driven inflation, which the note flags as a modest risk, and supply-side or imported price pressure, which a small open economy typically treats as something to look through; Jansson's emphasis on the former is the hawkish element, while the no-overheating line caps how far that can run. The krona has tended to trade these comments through the rate differential channel, with front-end Swedish yields the cleaner expression than the currency itself. Follow-ons are whether the Governor and other board members echo the wait-and-see framing, the next Swedish CPIF prints, and how the Riksbank's stance sits relative to the ECB's, since the differential has historically driven the currency more than domestic commentary alone.

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