Riksbank maintains its Policy Rate at 1.75% as expected, "there is scope to wait until there is a clearer picture", "current level of the policy rate gives a good initial position to adjust monetary policy if required to safeguard the inflation target"
POLICY
- The current level of the policy rate gives the Riksbank a good initial position to adjust monetary policy if required to safeguard the inflation target.
- The range of potential outcomes for what can happen going forward is wide and the Riksbank is monitoring developments closely.
INFLATION
- Inflation is currently below the target and the recent outcomes have been clearly lower than the Riksbank's forecast in March.
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
- Economic activity is weak. This means that there is scope to wait until there is a clearer picture of the effects of the war and the supply shocks it entails.
MIDDLE EAST
- The war in the Middle East is continuing to impact developments around the world and the longer it continues, the greater is the risk of inflation rising and negative effects on economic developments.
- The war is dampening the economic outlook somewhat in the near term. Since then, we have seen signs that growth was weaker than expected at the start of the year.
- If the war were assessed to have large effects on the global economy and lead to a broad and persistent upturn in inflation, the Riksbank would need to raise the policy rate.
- At the same time, economic activity has been weaker than expected and domestic inflationary pressures are currently low.
Context
The Riksbank's decision to maintain its policy rate at 1.75% aligns with expectations and reflects a cautious stance amidst uncertain economic conditions. With inflation currently below target and economic activity weak, they signal a readiness to adjust policy if necessary, particularly in response to external shocks like the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This dovish tone may influence market expectations, suggesting limited immediate tightening while closely monitoring the evolving situation.
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