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Riksbank Minutes: overall, members are skewed towards further tightening, but the exact timing is less clear

Newsquawk Staff ·

Jansson

  • Highlights the more complicated inflation picture, upside inflation risks and SEK weakness not helping.
  • "...consider it likely that the policy rate will be raised further over the coming year, in line with our monetary policy plan from September"; specifically, with reference to "just under two" increases, rather than the exact timing.
  • Does not think the November meeting impacts the prospect of a move in December.
  • "...even if it becomes appropriate to raise the policy rate slightly faster than envisaged in the September forecast, this is still a matter of a relatively cautious normalisation of monetary policy"

Hjelm

  • "I assess that upside risks dominate relative to the inflation forecasts from September"
  • "It remains to be seen to what extent the policy rate needs to be raised to achieve this overall, but I assess a further increase as likely given the current outlook."

Seim

  • "... my assessment is that we should now make monetary policy less expansionary so that the economy does not grow too quickly and create a more serious inflation problem. I believe that acting early reduces the risk that we will need to act more forcefully later"

Bunge

  • "...should apply a gradual approach going forward"
  • "... I find reason to repeat that we should carefully evaluate the need for each step going forward. That said, the direction is clear, and a tighter monetary policy will likely be needed going forward to keep inflation at the target."

Thedeen

  • "If no major surprises occur that lead us to reconsider the main features of the outlook for economic activity and inflation, I expect that we will raise the policy rate in line with our September forecast over the coming six months or so."

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