Russia Deputy PM Novak says Ukraine attacked two refineries in Russia today; Ukraine are not showing any signs of moving towards an "energy truce"

Strikes on Russian refining capacity have been a recurring feature of the conflict and have tended to matter for product markets more than for crude: the transmission runs through lost distillation runs, tighter diesel and gasoline export availability from a large products exporter, and wider product cracks, rather than through upstream supply, since Russian crude has continued to reach market under sanctions arrangements. Past episodes of refinery damage have typically been absorbed within weeks as repairs proceed and export flows are redirected, so the more durable signals are strike frequency, the size of the units hit, and whether storage or port infrastructure is damaged alongside the plants themselves. Novak's invocation of an 'energy truce' is itself a tell: references of this kind indicate that a mutual pause on energy infrastructure attacks has been under discussion, and public statements that the other side is not complying have historically preceded either escalation or formal abandonment of any understanding. The follow-ons are Russian export programmes for refined products in the coming loadings cycle, any official assessment of damaged capacity, and further Ukrainian targeting patterns. The channel is freight and product differentials first, crude second.