Russian Deputy PM Novak says the first diesel deliveries to the US are possible in 2-3 weeks. Intend to continue importing gasoline until end-2026.

Remarks from Novak are the standard channel through which Moscow telegraphs shifts in its refined product policy; he has long been the point man on both export restrictions and OPEC+ coordination, and his statements typically precede or accompany formal government resolutions rather than follow them. Episodes of this kind, where Russian export curbs are eased or trade flows rerouted after disruption, have tended to play out through the Atlantic basin diesel balance first, with the prompt transmission channel being ULSD cracks and the USGC and northwest European differential, since incremental Russian barrels displace longer-haul supply and relax freight and insurance premia. The case distinction that matters is between a genuine resumption of seaborne diesel flows, which pressures cracks and tanker rates, and headline-level permission that is slow to translate into cargo fixtures, a gap that has recurred in prior episodes of Russian export policy shifts. The accompanying signal on continued gasoline imports points to lingering domestic refinery or supply constraints, which historically has been the condition under which Moscow keeps one foot on the export brake even while liberalising diesel. The follow-ons worth watching are the formal decree language, actual loading schedules out of Baltic and Black Sea ports, and whether gasoline import needs persist, since the latter has tended to be the tell for how durable any diesel liberalisation proves.