Russian Deputy PM Novak says they could see a full restoration of diesel volumes by end-2026, Ifx/Tass. Could have a commercial deal with China regarding Power of Baikal by end-2026

Russian Deputy PM Novak says they could see a full restoration of diesel volumes by end-2026, Ifx/Tass. Could have a commercial deal with China regarding Power of Baikal by end-2026.

Novak's commentary falls into the recurring pattern of Russian energy officials managing expectations around capacity restoration after periods of constraint, in this case diesel output that has been disrupted by refinery damage and export restrictions. In comparable episodes, official restoration timelines have tended to slip, and the market has learned to treat headline dates from Moscow as opening positions rather than schedules; the relevant tell has been actual export loadings at Baltic and Black Sea terminals and the state of refinery runs, not ministerial guidance. The end-2026 horizon matters for the diesel complex because Russian barrels feed directly into the Atlantic basin distillate balance, where European supply has been structurally tighter since the loss of Russian product flows, so any credible timeline bears on crack spreads and the East-West arbitrage rather than crude outright. On the gas side, talk of a commercial deal with China on the new Siberian pipeline route echoes years of negotiations that have repeatedly stalled on pricing, and historically such announcements from the Russian side have preceded rather than concluded agreement, with Chinese counterparts typically silent until terms are settled. The distinction worth drawing is between rhetoric aimed at signalling leverage ahead of talks and a signed offtake, since only the latter alters long-dated gas supply expectations. Follow-ons are Chinese confirmation, any pricing detail, and whether diesel export quotas or refinery repair schedules shift in the interim.