Russia's Kremlin says contacts are ongoing about the energy ceasefire mentioned by US President Trump

Talk of a halt to strikes on energy infrastructure fits a recurring pattern in this conflict, where partial, sector-specific truces have been floated and tested before any broader cessation, and where the gap between announcement and verified implementation has tended to be the tradeable variable. The Kremlin's confirmation that contacts are ongoing is the standard early formulation: vague on terms, silent on duration, and historically followed by competing claims over compliance. The transmission channel runs through crude and products first, since attacks on refineries and export infrastructure have been a live supply variable, so any credible de-escalation compresses the risk premium embedded in the front of the oil curve and eases freight and insurance costs on affected routes; failure to hold reinstates it quickly. European gas and power are the secondary channel, alongside the sanction and shadow-fleet questions that any formalised arrangement would raise. Gold and the haven complex have typically faded on confirmed de-escalation and bid on breakdowns. What distinguishes signal from noise in these episodes is whether ceasefire language is matched by observable changes in strike tempo and loading schedules, and whether both sides describe the same terms. The follow-ons are the detail: scope, duration, monitoring, and any linkage to sanctions relief.