Russia’s Novak, on diesel supply deal with Trump, says there are talks between governments of Russia and US on supply

Russian fuel export diplomacy has typically surfaced at moments when sanctions architecture is under negotiation rather than when barrels are ready to move, and deputy energy ministers in this seat have historically used supply availability language as leverage in broader talks, so the phrasing 'talks between governments' matters more than the tonnage offered. Episodes in which sanctioned producers signal incremental diesel supply have tended to pressure product cracks first, through the expectation channel in European and Atlantic basin diesel markets, before any physical cargo is arranged; the pattern is that spreads reprice on the headline and only partially unwind if paperwork stalls. The distinction worth drawing is between a formal sanctions waiver or quota, which would alter flows structurally, and exploratory government-to-government contact, which changes nothing legally and leaves European refinery sourcing intact. What has mattered in comparable episodes is the follow-on: whether any licensing language, shipping and insurance treatment, or payment channel detail emerges, and whether counterpart agencies on the US side confirm the framing. The year-end export figure is producer guidance rather than market allocation, and Russian diesel targets have historically been sensitive to refinery maintenance and domestic demand rather than diplomatic appetite. Until the US side characterises the talks, this reads as positioning, not scheduling.