Russia’s Ryazan refinery (17mln tonnes annual capacity) halted oil processing on Wednesday after a drone attack

• The shutdown is expected to last two weeks

Strikes on Russian refining capacity have followed a recognisable sequence through this campaign: an initial hit on product markets rather than crude, since lost processing capacity tightens diesel and gasoline supply while freeing up crude that Russia cannot refine domestically for export. The distinction that matters is between damage to distillation units, which takes weeks to months to repair and genuinely removes capacity, and damage to storage or peripheral equipment, which has historically been absorbed faster than headline outage estimates suggest; stated two-week shutdown timelines in past episodes of this kind have tended to prove optimistic where primary units were hit. Ryazan is among the larger Russian refineries and supplies the domestic Moscow region, so the first-order channel is Russian domestic product balances and the government's response via export restrictions, a lever used repeatedly in this campaign when domestic supply tightened. Crude effects run in the opposite direction to the intuitive read: shut refining pushes more Russian barrels onto the seaborne market, which has on previous occasions weighed on Urals differentials rather than lifting flat price. Worth watching are whether other refineries in range are struck in the same wave, any shift in Russian product export loadings, and freight and insurance pricing on affected routes.