US military says that no US aircraft were destroyed or damaged in recent Iranian attacks

• Commercial vessel MT Nora has not broken through the US blockade

Official damage assessments of this kind follow a familiar pattern in Iran-related escalation episodes: the first reports of strikes are typically followed by competing casualty and damage claims from both sides, and it is the confirmed-loss side of that ledger, not the volume of fire, that has historically determined whether a cycle escalates or de-escalates. A clean sheet on US aircraft, if it holds, removes the trigger category that has most reliably drawn a direct US military response in past episodes, which is why such statements tend to accompany a retracement of the crude and gold risk premia built up on the initial headlines. The companion detail on the commercial vessel and the US blockade points to the standing second channel: enforcement around tanker traffic, where the escalation risk runs through interdictions, insurance and freight costs on Gulf liftings rather than through strikes themselves. Worth watching is whether the assessment is revised, since initial no-damage statements in prior episodes have occasionally been walked back as battle damage is catalogued, and whether the blockade claim is tested by further vessel movements. Attribution and sequencing of the next kinetic move, not rhetoric, is what has moved markets durably in comparable cycles.