Senior Iranian official says Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to a 'fully offensive' one, reports Reuters

Rhetorical escalation from a senior Iranian official framed around a deadline and Hormuz follows a well-worn pattern in this conflict: public hardening of language ahead of a negotiating window, with the strait invoked as the standing lever rather than an imminent action. Episodes of this kind have historically been priced through the crude complex first, via a geopolitical risk premium in the front of the oil curve and through freight and insurance costs on Gulf transits, while broader risk assets have tended to fade headline-driven moves unless physical flows are actually interrupted. The distinction that matters is between rhetorical escalation, which has typically been sold, and any move against shipping or infrastructure, which has not; past Hormuz threats that remained verbal have retraced, while episodes touching tankers or export capacity have held. The concrete tells are tanker traffic and insurance rates through the strait, any shift in official Iranian or US statements around the stated deadline, and whether mediators confirm the timeframe. As reported language rather than a verified policy shift, the signal is directional and the burden of confirmation sits with follow-through on the water.