SNB Minutes (Jun): There has been an increase in companies' inflation expectations in the short term
Newsquawk Staff ·
Inflation
- Medium-term inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared with the monetary policy assessment in March.
- Assuming the SNB policy rate remains constant, inflation should rise somewhat further in the coming quarters. The forecast is within the range of price stability over the entire forecast horizon.
- Economic growth could be weaker and inflation higher than expected.
- At present, inflation cannot be expected to rapidly rise above 2% or fall into negative territory.
- Although inflation risks have increased in recent months and stronger second-round effects are possible, there is no immediate need for action.
Economic Outlook
- GDP growth was solid in the first quarter of 2026. The main driver was value added in non-pharmaceutical manufacturing, which recorded strong growth.
- Although unemployment rose somewhat latterly, the economy has developed positively overall in recent months.
- Companies recorded solid turnover growth in the second quarter, driven by the services sector and construction. In manufacturing, turnover rose only moderately. Although companies view uncertainty as being high, they remain confident.
- They expect a robust increase in turnover in the coming quarters.
Sources
- ECB's Kazaks says that some more policy tightening might be necessary if inflation continues to reside above target; recent rise in yields has already tightened financing conditions, Econostream reports
- BoJ is expected to assess whether underlying inflation has reached its 2% target at its October 29th-30th policy meeting, while keeping interest rates unchanged at around 1.25%, Kyodo reports
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