SNB Minutes (Sept):

• The rise in inflation since the beginning of the year has been largely attributable to the increase in oil product prices.
• There are still no signs of second-round effects, and core inflation has risen only slightly.
• At the same time, medium-term inflationary pressure is only slightly higher, and the new conditional inflation forecast shows that inflation is within the range consistent with price stability over the entire forecast horizon.

• The SNB is also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary to ensure appropriate monetary conditions.
• An increased willingness to intervene is no longer necessary in the current environment.

SNB minutes of this vintage tend to confirm rather than surprise, since the Bank communicates its stance at the decision itself; the incremental information is usually in the nuance around intervention and the inflation decomposition. The framing here, an oil-driven headline pick-up with core barely moving and no second-round effects, is the standard pattern the SNB has used to look through imported energy shocks rather than respond to them, a posture shared by most small open economy central banks facing supply-side price pressure where the pass-through runs through the currency rather than domestic wages. The more market-relevant line is the stepped-down intervention language: the SNB's willingness to act in FX has historically been the operative policy lever alongside rates, and a shift from active to contingent intervention has typically been read as tolerance for franc firmness, which matters for EUR/CHF and CHF/JPY positioning more than for rates pricing. The distinction worth drawing is between the conditional forecast sitting inside the target range, which argues for policy inertia, and the energy caveat, which is the stated risk that would reopen the debate. The follow-ons are the next sight deposit data as the tell on whether intervention rhetoric matches activity, and the subsequent CPI prints for any broadening beyond oil products into core.