Spain sells EUR 5.436bln vs Exp. 4.5-5.5bln 2.35% 2029, 2.60% 2031 and 3.55% 2033 Bono

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Spain sells EUR 5.436bln vs Exp. 4.5-5.5bln 2.35% 2029, 2.60% 2031 and 3.55% 2033 Bono

BofA (w/e Oct 10th) Total Card Spending +5.1% Y/y (prev. +3% W/W); lower income spending growth has consistently outpaced higher income spending growth over the past few weeks

Richemont (CFR SW) and Signet (SIG) is reportedly in talks to join bids for Anglo American's (AAL LN), Bloomberg reports

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  • 2.35% 2029: b/c 2.07x (prev. 2.23x), average yield 3.313% (prev. 3.079%)
  • 2.60% 2031: b/c 1.94x (prev. 2.26x), average yield 3.482% (prev. 3.255%)
  • 3.55% 2033: b/c 2.39x (prev. 1.98x), average yield 3.713% (prev. 3.297%)

Context

A top-of-range takedown with mixed coverage is a familiar pattern in peripheral supply of this kind: the size clears, but the softening bid-to-cover on the two shorter lines against the firmer cover on the longest tenor points to demand concentrating further out the curve, where the yield pick-up compensates for duration. The step-up in average yields across all three lines versus the previous auctions of the same tenors is the more informative read, consistent with the back-up in core rates that has tended to cheapen Spanish paper into supply before it stabilises. Bonos have historically traded as a high-beta proxy on the core-periphery spread, so the relevant channel is the Bono-Bund differential rather than the absolute concession. Follow-ons worth noting are whether the spread widens through the settlement of this supply, the reception at the next Obligacion or syndicated tap, and dealer bid-wanted flows in the days after, since repeated weak tails across consecutive auctions, rather than any single result, is what has previously signalled genuine indigestion.

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