Spanish HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.0%)

Final readings of national HICP are a confirmatory exercise: the flash print carries the pricing information, and revisions at this stage have historically been small and have tended not to reprice front-end OIS on their own.

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Spanish HICP Final (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.0%)

French CPI Final (Aug YY) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.1%)

French CPI Final (Aug MM) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%)

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Context

A modest upside revision of this sort fits the established pattern in which energy base effects and seasonal components drive the monthly swing, and it is the annual rate and the core measure, rather than the headline month-on-month, that feed the ECB-relevant assessment. National finals of this kind matter mainly as an input to the euro-area aggregate revision that follows, where a surprise in a mid-sized member state is usually diluted by the larger economies. Spanish inflation has in past cycles run above the euro-area mean, reflecting services and tourism weightings, so a firmer national print has tended to reinforce rather than shift the aggregate narrative. The follow-ons are the euro-area HICP final and any ECB commentary referencing country-level dispersion. Signal content at this stage is low.

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