Spanish HICP Preliminary (Sep MM) 0.6% (Prev. 0.7%)

The sequence has tended to matter more than any single national outturn: the euro area flash re-prices the front end and EONIA-dated expectations, while the national prelims shift positioning at the margin. A month-on-month deceleration of this size, from 0.7% to 0.6%, sits within the range of noise that seasonal and energy components generate in Spanish prints, so the year-on-year rate and any core detail carry more weight than the headline monthly change. On previous occasions when national prelims have pointed in the same direction, the pass-through to ECB pricing has been meaningful; when they have diverged, the aggregate has tended to dominate and the early moves have faded. The follow-ons are the remaining national flashes, the euro area print itself, and whether the read aligns with the prevailing tone from ECB speakers on the pace of disinflation.