Swiss SECO forecasts: raising its forecast for economic growth in Switzerland; now expects 2026 growth of 1.7% (June forecast: 0.9%), 2027 forecast remains unchanged at 1.6%; average annual inflation forecast for 2026 and 2027 remains unchanged at 0.6%

SECO's forecasts are the Swiss government's official macro projections and carry more weight for the domestic policy narrative than for markets directly; the SNB produces its own conditional forecast, and it is the central bank's conditional path that has historically driven the franc and the front end of the CHF curve. A near-doubling of the growth projection alongside an unchanged, very low inflation forecast is a combination that in past Swiss episodes has reduced the perceived need for further easing without creating any case for tightening, a mix that has typically left the policy rate anchored and acted mainly on the growth-sensitive periphery of Swiss assets rather than on the franc itself. The franc's direction has tended to be set by safe-haven flows and rate differentials rather than by domestic growth revisions, so precedent argues against reading a growth upgrade through to the currency. The distinction worth drawing is between a revision driven by base effects or one-off factors, which the SNB has historically looked through, and one signalling genuine momentum, which would feed into its own forecast round. The follow-ons are the SNB's next assessment and whether its language on the output gap shifts, plus any revision pattern in the KOF and cantonal indicators that would corroborate or contradict the upgrade.