Swiss Weekly Sight Deposits (w/e Oct 2) Total: 464.24bln (prev. 456.8bln); Domestic 433.12bln (prev. 432bln)

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Swiss Weekly Sight Deposits (w/e Oct 2) Total: 464.24bln (prev. 456.8bln); Domestic 433.12bln (prev. 432bln)

ECB's Lane says underlying inflation indicators indicate that an upward shift in medium-term inflation has not taken hold

Turkish Imports Prel (Sep) 31.21B (Prev. 28.71B)

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Context

A rise of this size in total sight deposits, with the domestic component essentially flat, is the signature the market reads as SNB foreign exchange intervention: francs created to buy foreign currency show up in the total series rather than in domestic balances. The weekly prints have long served as the only timely proxy for the SNB's activity in the franc, sitting between the infrequent official intervention disclosures, and episodes of sustained week-on-week increases have historically coincided with periods of franc strength that the Bank was leaning against. The distinction worth drawing is between a one-off settlement effect or liquidity operation, which reverses, and a run of consecutive builds, which points to a deliberate campaign; a single week's jump is suggestive, a trend is confirmation. The transmission is direct for EUR/CHF and CHF crosses, since intervention buying of foreign assets typically flows into euro and dollar reserves. The follow-ons are the next weekly prints for confirmation, any SNB commentary framing the move as willingness to act, and the quarterly intervention data that eventually validate or contradict the proxy read.

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