the chance of a breakthrough in negotiations between the US and Iran is "not great", reports The Jerusalem Post

The channel is the sanctions and supply question: progress on talks carries the prospect of incremental Iranian barrels returning to market, while setbacks preserve the status quo of constrained flows and add a tail risk premium tied to escalation scenarios in and around Gulf shipping, freight and insurance costs rather than spot fundamentals. A sourcing caveat applies: unattributed assessments carried by a regional outlet sit low on the reliability ladder compared with named US or Iranian officials, and episodes of this kind have historically been walked back or contradicted within days. What distinguishes a durable signal from noise is corroboration, whether the tone is confirmed by principals on either side, whether scheduled rounds of talks proceed or are cancelled, and whether the back-channel intermediaries show movement. The tells worth noting are follow-on statements from Washington and Tehran and any shift in the scheduling of the next round; absent those, single-source pessimism of this sort has tended to fade quickly from the tape.