The September CPI and PPI translate into a core PCE projection of around 0.34%, which would be the highest monthly reading since January, says WSJ's Timiraos

The CPI-to-PCE translation exercise is a standard pre-FOMC ritual: the PCE deflator draws on different weights and source data than CPI, with the gap typically running through shelter treatment, healthcare services (where PPI feeds in directly), and portfolio management prices that track equity moves. Historically, a hot implied core PCE print landing on the eve of a policy decision has mattered most when officials are finely balanced between cuts; months where the implied monthly pace runs well above trend have tended to stiffen the cautious wing's case without necessarily derailing a pre-signalled path, since the committee cuts or holds on the trend view rather than one month. The pattern in past episodes of this kind is that the translation call gets priced first, then partially re-marked on the actual PCE release, which can deviate from these estimates on residual seasonality and component substitution. The three-month annualized re-acceleration flagged here is the more policy-relevant series, since officials have repeatedly framed decisions on whether the short-horizon run rate is converging toward target. Worth watching is the actual PCE release itself and whether Fed officials in the post-release window treat the print as noise within a disinflationary trend or as evidence of stalling.