The Times reports that "Rosebank is very unlikely to be approved", government sources say

Sourced briefings of this kind, where approval is flagged as unlikely ahead of a formal ruling, have historically served to soften the ground for a contentious decision and to test industry reaction; the pattern on previous high-profile energy consents has been a period of denial followed by either a quiet refusal or a legal challenge from the operator. The actors with prior form here are the government, which has signalled scepticism toward new North Sea development, and the field's partners, who have consistently argued the project is compatible with climate commitments and energy security aims. Worth watching is whether the operator seeks judicial review of any refusal, as affected developers have done in comparable cases, and how the decision interacts with ongoing litigation over the climate assessment of new UK fields. The read-across for the wider North Sea peer set runs through the investment climate and the windfall tax regime rather than through near-term supply, since first oil from Rosebank was never imminent.