The upcoming Iran-Iraq-GCC meeting in Oman on Monday was an Omani idea, and among primary aims is to formally present Iran-Oman deal on new Hormuz arrangement, reports Amwaj

Diplomatic gatherings convened around Hormuz have historically followed a familiar sequence: a locally sponsored proposal, a formal presentation to the GCC states, and then a long gap between announcement and any change in shipping practice, with the strait's status determined by maritime security conditions rather than communiques. Oman's role fits its established pattern as the intermediary acceptable to both Tehran and the Gulf states, which gives the initiative more plausibility than most but also means Muscat's own interests in de-escalation are doing much of the work. The sourcing caveat is the operative line: a senior Iranian figure explicitly stating the strait is not reopened signals that any deal being presented is procedural rather than operational, and past episodes of this kind have seen headline optimism fade once insurers and flag states declined to adjust risk assessments without verified security guarantees. The transmission channel, when one materialises, runs through war-risk premia, freight rates and the insurance market's willingness to cover Gulf transits, which historically reprice well before or well after diplomatic language does. The follow-ons worth noting are the GCC attendees' reaction, whether any framework mentions verification or escort arrangements, and tanker traffic data in the days after the meeting, since flow has been the reliable tell in comparable episodes.