TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLE 1+ TICKS LOWER AT 107-02

Yield curve flattens as yields rise amid continued equity market rebound. At settlement, 2-year +4.1bps at 4.553%, 3-year +2.4bps at 4.606%, 5-year +1.9bps at 4.664%, 7-year +1.3bps at 4.752%, 10-year +0.7bps at 4.866%, 20-year -0.7bps at 5.287%, 30-year -0.2bps at 5.261%.

THE DAY: The Treasury yield curve flattened on Monday, with front-end yields rising while the long end was little changed at settlement.

The move appeared largely driven by risk sentiment, with US equities extending Friday's rebound and reducing haven demand for Treasuries. Nonetheless, some concerns remained amid pressure in Nvidia (NVDA) shares following reports concerning CEO Jensen Huang and an alleged relationship with a Chinese spy.

Meanwhile, the rise in front-end yields coincided with a sizeable two-year Treasury futures block trade at 09:03 ET, which saw 26k contracts traded at 102-12+. CME does not disclose whether the trade was buyer- or seller-initiated, although Treasury futures came under pressure following the transaction.

There was also a notable shift in Fed pricing, with money markets now pricing 39bps of hikes by March next year, up from 34bps on Friday. The equity rout following the midterms had prompted a dovish repricing of Fed expectations amid concerns over the growth outlook, but the rebound in AI-related stocks has helped revive optimism surrounding AI-driven economic growth, supporting a renewed hawkish shift in Fed pricing.

Yields rose despite a notable decline in oil prices, extending the recent pullback in energy prices. Over the weekend, US President Trump said he believes it is highly unlikely that he will resume a full-scale war or major military strikes against Iran.

Yields came off highs ahead of settlement after Al Arabiya reported that a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived the path of serious negotiations between Washington and Tehran, weighing on crude prices even further.

US data had little impact. September wholesale inventories were revised higher to 0.7% from 0.6%, while the October Employment Trends Index rose to 108.36 from 107.56. Meanwhile, the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations showed inflation expectations unchanged across the one-, three- and five-year horizons at 3.9%, 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively.

Fed commentary saw Barkin state that he has no base case for the December meeting, noting that the policy path is straightforward but that it is best to adjust policy carefully.

The USD 58bln 3-year Treasury auction had little market impact, although the results were mixed, leaning soft. The offering tailed by 0.5bps, while the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53x was below the six-auction average of 2.64x, suggesting somewhat lacklustre demand. However, direct participation rose to 35.0%, well above the 25.2% average, helping keep dealer allocation below average at 9.5%.

Attention now turns to Tuesday's US CPI report, which will be key in shaping Fed rate expectations ahead of the December 9th meeting. This will be the final CPI report before the decision, with November CPI not due until the following day. However, policymakers will still receive October PPI and PCE data, alongside the November jobs report, before the meeting.

• US to sell USD 42bln of 10-year notes on November 10th and USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on November 12th.
• US sold USD 58bln of 3-year notes; Tail 0.5bps.

• US sold 3-month bills at high rate of 4.060%, B/C 2.92x; sold 6-month bills at a high rate of 4.145%, B/C 2.92x
• US sold 6-week bills at a high rate of 3.990%, B/C 2.59x

• Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 21.1bps (prev.19.2bps), Mar 39.1bps (prev. 33.9bps).
• EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 105bln (prev. USD 111bln) on November 6th
• SOFR at 3.89% (prev. 3.92%), volumes at USD 3.174tln (prev. USD 3.256tln) on November 6th
• NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.25bln (prev. 0.15bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 1) on November 9th
• NY Fed T-Bill Purchases (1-4 month): Accepts USD 3.65bln of USD 33.49bln offered; Offer-to-cover 9.17x