TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLE 14+ TICKS HIGHER AT 107-10+

Yields were lower across the curve on Thursday, particularly at the front end, leading to a bull steepening. At settlement, 2-year -11.9bps at 4.464%, 3-year -10.3bps at 4.531%, 5-year -8.1bps at 4.603%, 7-year -7.3bps at 4.700%, 10-year -5.7bps at 4.833%, 20-year -2.1bps at 5.278%, 30-year -2.2bps at 5.254%.

THE DAY: The move was predominantly driven by a flight-to-quality trade amid the bearish risk environment, with equities slumping and the Nasdaq falling as much as 6% at one point. Many AI-related chip, memory and neocloud stocks plummeted to multi-month lows, seemingly driven by fears of an AI slowdown amid the recent Democratic sweep in the midterm elections, adding to existing concerns surrounding AI spending and funding. There has also been considerable chatter across social media and in market commentary about potential fund liquidations given the magnitude of the equity sell-off. Reports noted that hedge fund Walleye is to return part of its capital to investors, according to a client letter, while Bloomberg reported that Greg Coffey's hedge fund suffered its worst-ever month, breaking its previous streak, although this was reportedly driven by the Brazil election. Meanwhile, the X account @SpecialSitsNews claimed to be hearing of several hedge fund pods suffering significant losses, including two credit pods at Millennium earlier in the week and numerous equity pods, although these claims remain unverified.

Elsewhere, oil prices climbed, paring some of the extreme losses seen on Wednesday, amid vague reports from N12 and Sabereen News suggesting a high probability of renewed conflict with Iran and potential US military strikes on targets in the country. However, much of the upside likely reflected a reversal of Wednesday's sharp sell-off.

Fed's Hammack spoke for the first time since her dissent, noting that gradual rate hikes are less disruptive to the economy and financial system, but stressing that policy needs to move to restrictive levels. Barkin stated that the policy path is straightforward, but the issue now is the pace, noting that a gradual approach makes sense. He also described rates as somewhere around neutral. Neither set of Fed remarks had much impact on Treasuries, with the main driver of price action being FTQ demand amid the weakness in equities.

The BoE hiked rates by 25bps, as expected, but with hawkish elements. The vote split was 8-1, with all members voting to hike, although Mann opted for a larger 50bps increase. Bailey also said further hikes are likely if the Iran war does not come to an end, although he stressed that the decision should not be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of increases.

Attention turns to Friday's NFP report. Thursday's labour metrics saw a slowdown in job growth in the Revelio Labs NFP estimate to 26k from 67k, while the Chicago Fed Unemployment Rate indicator eased slightly to 4.14% from 4.18%. Challenger job cuts were little changed M/M but recorded their lowest October reading since 2023. Initial Jobless Claims declined further to 189k from 195k, below the 196k forecast, although Continuing Claims rose slightly more than expected.

• US to sell USD 58bln of 3-year notes on November 9th, USD 42bln of 10-year notes on November 10th and USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on November 12th.

• US sells 4-week bills at a high rate of 3.890%; B/C 2.46; sells 8-week bills at a high rate of 3.975%; B/C 2.68
• US to sell USD 100bln of 6-wk bills, USD 95bln of 13-wk bills and USD 82bln of 26-wk bills on November 9th; all to settle on November 12th

• Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 16.9bps (prev. 20.3bps), Mar 29.1bps (prev. 40.8bps).
• EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 115bln (prev. USD 113bln) on November 4th
• SOFR at 3.94% (prev. 3.97%), volumes at USD 3.207tln (prev. USD 3.26tln) on November 4th
• NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.23bln (prev. 0.43bln) across 1 counterparty (prev. 3) on November 4th