Trump says we are having deep talks with Iran, N12 reports

Signals of renewed US-Iran engagement follow a well-worn pattern: talk of negotiations has historically punctured the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude, with the tell being whether rhetoric from either side is confirmed by the other and whether it is accompanied by any movement on sanctions enforcement or shipping conditions. The channel is specific: progress implies incremental Iranian barrels returning to market and lower freight and insurance costs through the Gulf, which pressures the front of the WTI curve and flattens backwardation; breakdown reverses it quickly. The distinction worth drawing is between genuine diplomatic tracks and headline management, since comments of this kind have on previous occasions preceded both substantive rounds and abrupt escalations. The follow-ons are confirmation from Tehran, any OPEC+ response to a potential supply return, and positioning data showing how much premium remains to be unwound. As a secondhand report rather than an official statement, the signal is provisional.