Turkey has reportedly proposed a Russia-Ukraine deal to end the Black Sea shipping attacks, AFP reports citing sources

The precedent here is the earlier Black Sea grain initiative, which Ankara helped negotiate and which operated for a period before collapsing, showing both that such corridors are achievable and that they rest on continued Russian cooperation rather than enforcement. The relevant transmission channel is freight and insurance: war risk premia on Black Sea transit, dry bulk rates on grain and fertiliser routes, and Ukrainian export volumes, all of which have moved sharply on prior episodes of attacks on shipping and on the initiation or breakdown of maritime deals. The distinction worth drawing is between a genuine cessation of strikes with monitoring provisions and a headline-only proposal, since markets have historically faded announcements that lacked Russian confirmation. The tells are whether Moscow and Kyiv acknowledge the proposal, whether any framework includes inspection or guarantees, and how underwriters reprice Black Sea cover. As a sourced but unconfirmed report, this sits at the early end of the usual sequence.