Turkish GDP Growth Rate (Q2 QQ) 1.1% (Prev. 0.3%)

Turkish growth prints have for some time been read through the lens of the central bank's disinflation programme rather than as a straightforward activity signal: in episodes of orthodox tightening, a firm quarter on quarter reading has typically been taken as evidence that domestic demand is cooling more slowly than policy intends, keeping the real rate path restrictive for longer, while a weak print is read as the tightening biting. The distinction that matters here is between headline growth and its composition, since prior Turkish releases have repeatedly shown consumption and inventory swings masking the underlying trend, and the demand components tend to move the lira and local rates more than the aggregate. The acceleration from the prior quarter keeps the rebalancing question open. Worth noting is that Turkish data carry an established history of sizeable revisions and of political sensitivity around both the statistics institute and the central bank, so single prints have tended to be discounted more heavily than peer equivalents. The follow-ons are the monthly activity and inflation releases, which in past cycles have determined whether a GDP surprise shifts the policy path or fades.