Turkish PPI (Sep MM) 2.07% (Prev. 2.57%)

A deceleration in monthly Turkish producer prices on the prior print, though the monthly rate remains the metric that matters for an economy where annualised comparisons are distorted by base effects and currency pass-through. In episodes of Turkish disinflation of this kind, the sequence has historically run from PPI through to CPI with a lag, so upstream cooling is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the consumer print to follow; the tell is whether services and sticky core components confirm the pipeline improvement at the next CPI release. The pass-through channel runs directly through the lira: producer costs are heavily import- and FX-linked, so the monthly PPI rate tends to track the currency's trajectory, and a softer print alongside a stable lira carries more signal than one achieved amid depreciation. For the central bank, easing decisions in this position have historically hinged on the monthly inflation run-rate and its trend rather than any single release, and producer-price moderation feeds that calculus at the margin. Worth watching next are the annual PPI rate, the CPI print that follows, and any shift in the official rhetoric around the path of real rates.