Two rockets were launched from the city of Tabriz in western Iran, Sabreen reports; Two missiles fired from Iran towards the Strait of Hormuz

Launches from Iranian territory toward the Strait of Hormuz sit at the top of the escalation ladder for energy markets, given the strait's role as the transit chokepoint for a large share of seaborne crude and LNG. The established sequence in episodes of this kind is a fast risk premium into prompt crude and freight, followed by a reassessment once the distinction becomes clear between demonstrative fire and a genuine attempt to disrupt shipping; past episodes have repeatedly shown that premiums fade quickly when tanker traffic continues unimpeded, and persist only when insurers, owners, or navies change behaviour. The transmission channels to watch are war-risk insurance rates for Gulf transits, tanker freight on the affected routes, and the prompt crude timespreads, which tend to move ahead of flat price when physical supply is perceived at risk. The actors' prior form matters here: Iran has historically signalled around the strait without attempting a sustained closure, a step widely read as self-damaging given its own export dependence. Follow-ons that separate noise from a regime change are confirmation of impact or interception, any suspension or rerouting by major owners and flag states, and the posture of US and allied naval assets in the Gulf. Sourcing is thin at this stage, a single regional report, so confirmation from wire services and maritime tracking is the immediate tell.