UBS expects RBA to raise rates two more times up to a terminal rate of 4.85%.

Bank revisions of this kind usually move front-end Australian rates only at the margin unless they mark a shift in the consensus, since a single house changing its terminal-rate view is more noise than signal; what has historically repriced the curve is the direction of the aggregate, particularly when forecasters are chasing the data rather than the data surprising forecasters. A call for two further hikes is also a statement about the sequence as much as the endpoint: the market prices the path meeting by meeting, so the practical transmission runs through the implied odds for the next one or two decisions rather than the terminal figure itself. Worth noting that hawkish bank revisions of this kind have in past tightening phases preceded, and at times anticipated, a firmer central bank stance, but they have also been reversed quickly when a single soft inflation print breaks the narrative. The follow-ons are the next quarterly inflation release, RBA commentary on whether policy is considered restrictive enough, and whether peer houses follow with matching revisions. As one forecaster's view, directional context rather than a catalyst in itself.