UK Average Earnings incl. Bonus (Jul 3MYr) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.2%)

The relevant transmission is through the MPC's persistent wage-growth concern, where private sector regular pay has typically mattered more to the hawks than the bonus-inclusive headline, so the composition in the detail rather than the 3.9% itself tends to drive any front-end move in SONIA and gilt shorts. In past episodes of this kind, an on-consensus earnings print alongside slowing momentum has shifted attention immediately to the accompanying unemployment rate, payrolls, and vacancies data in the same release, and to how the figures sit against the Bank's own wage forecasts, with forecast misses historically carrying more weight than survey consensus. The follow-ons are the response in short sterling futures, any comment from MPC members in scheduled appearances, and the next services CPI print as the other half of the persistence question. Sterling's reaction in comparable prints has usually been muted and quickly absorbed unless the labour market detail contradicts the headline.