UK BoE Interest Rate Decision 3.75% vs. Exp. 3.75% (Prev. 3.75%)

The MPC has a track record of closely divided votes, and in past episodes of this kind the repricing in Sonia futures and the front end of the gilt curve has come from the hawk-dove tally and any tweak to guidance on the pace of easing rather than from the rate itself. The relevant distinction is between a hold that signals a pause within an ongoing cutting cycle and one that signals the cycle is nearing its end: the former pushes timing out along the short end, the latter flattens expected terminal pricing. Sterling's established pattern on in-line decisions is an initial non-move that resolves once the minutes and any accompanying projections are digested. The follow-ons are the vote breakdown, the language on persistence of domestic inflation and wage growth, and whether updated forecasts are in play this meeting, since the Bank has tended to make its larger signal changes at projection rounds.