UK PM Burnham is to step up UK business outreach amid fears of budget tax increases, with the PM and Chancellor Healey to meet chief executives and lobby groups after complaints about lack of detail and plans for the economy, according to FT

Outreach of this kind ahead of a UK budget follows a familiar sequence: business complaints about absent detail, a round of chief executive and lobby meetings, then a period in which revenue-raising options are floated through the press before the Chancellor commits. The pattern in past fiscal events of this type has been that trial balloons on taxation are partially walked back or redesigned after lobbying, so early framing overstates what ultimately lands in the Red Book. The transmission channel for UK assets runs through gilt supply expectations and the fiscal credibility premium at the long end, with sterling taking its cue from the same credibility read rather than from any single tax measure. The relevant distinction is between broad-based rises in headline rates, which carry clearer demand implications, and narrower base-broadening or threshold freezes, which tend to be absorbed with less market friction. What bears watching is whether the meetings produce named concessions, the sequence of pre-briefings that usually precedes the statement, and any shift in OBR-scored headroom commentary, since that is the binding constraint on how much revenue the Chancellor actually needs.