Ukraine President Zelensky's advisor says Russian reports about refinery strikes are fake

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Ukraine President Zelensky's advisor says Russian reports about refinery strikes are fake

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Russia Deputy PM Novak says Ukraine attacked two refineries in Russia today; Ukraine are not showing any signs of moving towards an "energy truce"

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Context

Denials of this kind are a standard feature of the information war that has run alongside the physical conflict, and in past episodes the competing claims around strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have typically been resolved only by satellite imagery, shipping data, or loadings schedules days later. The substantive question is not the wording of either side but whether refinery or export capacity is actually impaired, since that is what transmits into product cracks, diesel and gasoline differentials, and crude re-routing rather than the headline itself. Ukraine's public position on such strikes has historically been to deny or stay silent even where damage was later confirmed, so the denial carries limited informational weight on its own. The tells worth watching are tanker tracking, refinery run-rate estimates, and Russian export nominations, which have tended to confirm or contradict official messaging faster than any statement. Where past strikes were verified, the durable market effect ran through products and freight more than through the crude flat price, and reversals of unconfirmed headlines have tended to be sharp but short-lived. As a single-source denial, the signal is weak in both directions.

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