[UPDATED] Banks mostly retain calls for BoE to remain on hold; JPM sees tightening in November, Pantheon Macro expects no move until end-2027

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The IDF confirmed that it struck Hezbollah infrastructure in Bekaa Valley

The Bank of England begins its scenario analysis phase in the private markets system-wide exploratory scenario (PM SWES):

[UPDATED] Banks mostly retain calls for BoE to remain on hold; JPM sees tightening in November, Pantheon Macro expects no move until end-2027

BoJ Governor Ueda has been discharged from hospital; returns to work from June 23rd

[CALENDAR ADDITION] NATO Secretary General Rutte to meet US President Trump on June 24th in Washington

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  • Danske Bank: Maintains call for BoE to keep the Bank Rate unchanged until next year; risks tilted towards a hike this year and potential for lower rates opening up in 2027.
  • Oxford Economics: Maintains call for BoE to keep the Bank Rate unchanged until next year.
  • Rabobank: Removes call for a rate hike in 2026; says it is to early to assess whether second-round effects will materialise.
  • Oxford Economics: Maintains call for BoE to keep the Bank Rate unchanged until next year.
  • JPMorgan: Pushes call for BoE to later in the year; to hike 25bps in November 2026 (prev. saw a hike in July)
  • ING: Maintains BoE call, reiterates next move is likely to be a rate cut in 2027.
  • Pantheon Macro: Maintains call for BoE to keep the Bank Rate unchanged through 2026 and 2027.
  • BNP Paribas: Pushes back + trims BoE call; expects 25bps hike in September 2026 (prev. saw a hike in July and Sept)

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