US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack says US could strike Iran as soon as this weekend, AFP reports citing an interview on Israeli radio

• "Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely," Barrack said

Strike warnings directed at Iran have historically repriced crude and safe havens in two distinct stages: the initial risk premium on the threat itself, which tends to fade if no kinetic event follows, and a far larger move only when actual strikes occur or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is drawn into question. The crude transmission channel runs through supply-disruption probability rather than current flows, so the tell has been term structure and volatility skew rather than spot alone. Sourcing matters here: the comment is an ambassador's conditional remark on foreign radio, relayed by wire, not a Pentagon statement or an order, and past episodes of this kind have ranged from deliberate signalling to loose talk that was walked back. Actors worth watching are whether official Washington channels adopt the same framing, whether force posture shifts in the region, and whether Tehran responds rhetorically or operationally, since retaliation sequencing has typically driven the second leg. The established pattern is that threats alone have produced brief haven bids in gold and the yen and a crude premium that unwinds quickly absent follow-through, while confirmed strikes have sustained it. A weekend timeline adds gap risk into Monday's open, a configuration that in prior episodes has concentrated positioning into Friday's close.