US and Iran are reportedly closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reports citing officials; White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations

MOU:

• A one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding would declare an end to the war in the region.
• It would set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.
• Many terms would depend on a final agreement being reached.

Strait of Hormuz:

• The deal would include both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait would be gradually lifted.
• The US naval blockade would also be gradually lifted.
• A detailed agreement would cover opening the strait.

Uranium enrichment:

• Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment.
• The duration is still being negotiated.
• Iran proposed 5 years; US demanded 20 years.
• At least 12 years is being discussed, with 15 years seen as a possible outcome.
• After the moratorium ends, Iran would be allowed to enrich uranium to 3.67%.

Nuclear commitments:

• Iran would commit to never seeking a nuclear weapon, and would commit not to carry out weaponisation-related activities.
• The parties are discussing a clause under which Iran would not operate underground nuclear facilities.
• Iran may agree to remove its highly enriched uranium from the country.
• One option being discussed is moving that material to the US.

Inspections:

• Iran would accept an enhanced inspections regime.
• This would include snap inspections by UN inspectors.

Sanctions and funds:

• The US would gradually lift sanctions imposed on Iran.
• The US would gradually release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian funds.

Timelines:

• The MOU would start a 30-day negotiation period.
• The detailed agreement would cover opening the strait, limiting Iran’s nuclear programme, and lifting US sanctions.
• The US expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.

Snapbacks:

• If negotiations collapse, US forces could restore the blockade.
• US forces could also resume military action.
• The US wants any Iranian violation on enrichment to extend the moratorium.

Issues:

• Nothing has been agreed yet.
• Iranian leadership is believed to be divided.
• Some US officials remain sceptical that even an initial deal will be reached.
• The duration of the enrichment moratorium remains unresolved.
• It is unclear whether Iran will agree to remove highly enriched uranium from the country.